A remarkable day. On the morning of November 22, federal police arrested Jair Bolsonaro — the genocidal former president — at his home after he was caught tampering with his electronic ankle monitor.

It marks yet another chapter in Brazil’s turbulent political landscape, with significant implications for immediate national debates and the lead-up to the 2026 presidential election.

A setback for the coup camp

Since September 21, Bolsonaro and the hardline wing of the coup-mongers have been on the defensive.

The far right shifted to a new agenda following the police massacre carried out under Rio governor Claudio Castro’s administration and its call to confront alleged “gangs.” Just last week, Congress passed the so-called “Anti–organized crime bill,” authored by Guilherme Derrite (right-wing congressman and São Paulo’s Secretary of Public Security), which drew the legislature’s attention and attempted to offer new coordinates for the national agenda.

Another factor was Trump’s partial retreat after meeting with Lula — including a suspension of certain tariff penalties — and, at least for now, a visible distancing from the Bolsonaro clan.

Bolsonaro’s arrest further weakened the hard-core coup faction. The trend now points toward the isolation of Bolsonaro and his sons, particularly as Ramagem (a sitting federal congressman, former director of Brazil’s intelligence agency ABIN, and recently convicted for his role in the coup plot alongside Bolsonaro) has fled the country. The far right will need to fast-track an alternative “post-Bolsonaro” path if it hopes to enter the 2026 race with any chance of success.

Meanwhile, another bloc will try to exploit tensions between Motta (the Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies), Alcolumbre (the President of the Senate), and the federal government in order to revive the amnesty debate — an issue that could once again polarize the Chamber of Deputies.

A political battle

Facing the current moment requires sharpening the political confrontation on two fronts:

• Continuing to dismantle the Bolsonaro machine — not easing up on Bolsonaro’s imprisonment, but pressing forward against the entire coup network (its financiers, economic operators, and political coordinators) and blocking any attempt at amnesty
• Taking on the debate over “gangs” and organized crime, which, contrary to the caricature underpinning Derrite’s bill, is not about criminalizing poor neighborhoods but rather confronting the suit-and-tie segment of organized crime, as made clear by the “Hidden Carbon” (a recent Federal Police probe targeting the financial wing of organized crime in Brazil) operation and the arrest of the owner of Banco Master

Confronting the far right on every front

It is essential to build on the sense of celebration many activists felt after Bolsonaro’s arrest and turn that momentum into political struggle — online, in the streets, and across social institutions.

Examples abound. Indigenous peoples and youth mobilizing at COP-30 to denounce green capitalism, government hypocrisy, and the privatization of rivers; the Black movement’s initiatives during Black November, including the November 20 demonstrations, the Black Women’s March in Brasília, and the launch of MES’s Black caucus, Maré Negra.

Only a fight “in the heat of the moment” can defeat Bolsonarismo and prepare the ground for the battles ahead, including the electoral arena in 2026.

Israel Dutra is a sociologist, Secretary for Social Movements of PSOL (Socialism and Freedom Party), and a member of the party’s National Leadership and of the Socialist Left Movement (MES/PSOL).