Trump at a Crossroads
The electoral defeat of Trump in the upcoming midterm elections would be a political event of global importance, one that all democratic sectors should work toward
Donald Trump’s approval rating has hit a historic low. According to the latest poll conducted by The New York Times, only 37% of Americans approve of the president’s performance. His disapproval ratings range from 56% to 69% on issues such as immigration, the economy, and the cost of living. A striking two-thirds of the public view the declaration of war against Iran as a mistake. Meanwhile, 62% disapprove of the U.S. handling of the Palestinian issue.
As the midpoint of 2026 approaches, it is becoming clear that a negative trend has consolidated itself. Trump was elected in 2024 with greater authority than in 2016. The first six months of his term were marked by an unprecedented offensive against social rights, democratic freedoms, and political opponents. But after the initial shock, social movements regained their ability to organize and respond. The clearest examples are the No Kings protests and the struggle against ICE, which spread nationally from Minneapolis. At this moment, the administration’s aggressive drive continues, but the president is significantly more isolated.
Foreign policy has played an important role in this context. The situation in Iran has proven far more complicated than Trump and his administration anticipated, creating a humiliating scenario for the United States on the world stage. The meeting with Xi Jinping produced no concrete results, and fears over the consolidation of Chinese economic primacy persist. Relations with Washington’s traditional European allies have cooled amid a series of diplomatic embarrassments. The largest of these — Greenland — may generate further revelations, as the Trump administration continues to conduct closed-door negotiations over the territory, still aiming to bring the island under its control. The war in Ukraine remains unresolved.
Latin America is a case of its own. Positioned at the center of the National Security Strategy released in December 2025, the region remains under severe threat following the successful — and criminal — incursion into Venezuela in January. Cuba is experiencing a moment of extreme fragility and could become a compensatory target for Trump amid the humiliation he faces in the Middle East. National elections in Brazil and Colombia will be decisive, but it is far from certain that the right or far right will regain power in those countries. Meanwhile, U.S. diplomacy seeks concessions even from progressive governments, as illustrated by the rare earths legislation approved in Brazil under Lula before the Brazilian president’s visit to Washington.
The global situation is one of profound complexity and disorder — much of it generated by Trump himself. But the domestic and international dynamics surrounding the fate of the Republican administration are becoming increasingly intertwined. The clearest example is the war in Iran, the first war in U.S. history initiated without majority popular support. Opposition to the aggression — present from the outset — has expanded as the domestic effects of the war become more tangible, including rising fuel prices and inflation. Twenty-nine billion dollars have already been spent on the war, in addition to the one trillion dollars allocated to the military and defense budget in 2025 — a figure Trump proposes to increase to 1.5 trillion in 2026. The drain of these resources is being felt through budget shortfalls in social programs.
This is why the outlook for Trump in the approaching midterm elections appears unfavorable. He is expected to suffer a major defeat — if not in both chambers of Congress, then at least in the House of Representatives. The only scenario in which this might not occur would involve heavy-handed intervention — beyond what is already taking place — through aggressive gerrymandering or concentrated repressive actions on voting days. In either case, such operations would neither be easy nor go unchallenged.
A partial electoral defeat for Trump would be a political event of global importance, one that all democratic sectors should work toward. Even so, from the standpoint of a strategy aimed at working-class emancipation and the defeat of U.S. imperialism, it would not be sufficient. This perspective also contrasts with another revealing feature of the current political landscape: although a “Democratic wave” appears to be taking shape ahead of the midterms, only 26% of the population holds a favorable view of the Democratic Party.
It does not take much to see that there is significant room for the growth of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) in this context. The organization is already backing at least seven competitive congressional campaigns and could potentially triple its current representation, alongside major gains in state legislatures. More than a matter of electoral arithmetic, what is at stake is the consolidation of the DSA as an independent socialist pole within the broader movement to defeat Trump. This is a process that must develop both in struggle and at the ballot box, advancing a clear program and political identity to be defended by the organization’s committed militant base.
